February 2025 Crypto Market Overview

February 2025 saw steep declines for Bitcoin and Ethereum, leaving investors anxious for March. Historical trends suggest March could bring more weakness for both BTC and ETH prices.

February 2025 was a brutal month for the market, with both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experiencing their steepest declines in over ten years. As the two dominant forces struggle to regain momentum, uncertainty looms large over the market’s future.

With historical data indicating March as a typically weak month for crypto, investors wonder whether this downturn is the beginning of a longer slump or if a recovery is on the horizon.

BTC and ETH performance

February 2025 featured heightened volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with both assets facing notable corrections. BTC began the month strong, hovering near local highs, but succumbed to bearish pressure, resulting in a steep decline of over 12%. ETH underperformed BTC significantly, suffering a staggering 38% drop. The widening gap between the two suggests shifting investor sentiment, potentially driven by liquidity concerns and sector-specific weaknesses. While BTC found some support, ETH’s steep downturn raises questions about its resilience in the face of broader market turbulence.

March weakness: A historical trend

Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum have offered little relief in March. BTC’s average March return is just 3.42%, with a median of 0.51%, indicating muted or negative performance in many years. ETH fared slightly better with an 8.22% average return, but a median of 1.80% suggests inconsistency. BTC has experienced declines in March during several years, while ETH suffered notable downturns as well. Given BTC’s -17.39% and ETH’s -31.95% declines in February 2025, historical data suggests continued caution for March, reinforcing a seasonally weak period for both assets.

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Can they rebound in March?

Bitcoin enters March after a brutal February, shedding 17.39% — one of its worst monthly performances in recent years. Historically, March has been weak for BTC, with an average return of -0.39% and a median of 0.51%, reinforcing concerns of continued downside pressure. Technically, BTC is struggling below its 50-day SMA ($97,570.68) and near its 200-day SMA ($82,231.19). The RSI at 36.85 indicates that it is still in bearish territory. Unless Bitcoin reclaims key levels above $90,000 with volume support, any short-term rallies may face selling pressure.

Ethereum fared even worse, crashing 31.95% in February — its steepest decline ever. Historically, March has been unremarkable for ETH, averaging 2.82% with a median of 1.18%. Technically, ETH remains well below its 50-day SMA ($2,890.37) and 200-day SMA ($2,926.03), with an RSI at 37.82, indicating mild recovery from oversold conditions. Unless ETH reclaims the $2,500-$2,600 zone and sees stronger buying volume, any rebounds in March may be short-lived.

Investor sentiment and market psychology

During downturns, investor psychology plays a key role in shaping price action. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) often lead to panic selling, exacerbating declines beyond fundamental justifications. As prices fall, retail investors typically capitulate, while institutional players look for discounted entries. Current sentiment suggests caution, but not outright capitulation. If macroeconomic concerns persist, sentiment could turn excessively bearish, creating opportunities for contrarian buyers.