Cryptocurrency Market Outlook for XRP

Forecasters on the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket have reflected the ongoing market decline, reducing their expectations for XRP’s short-term record price potential.

Declining Odds for XRP

According to the latest data, the probability of XRP hitting a new all-time high before the end of the first half of 2025 has decreased to 26%, down from 56% earlier this month.

The change in sentiment follows President Donald Trump’s recent executive order, which established a U.S. digital asset stockpile. Contrary to previous speculation, this order will not include new token purchases for now. Earlier expectations that the U.S. government would accumulate altcoins, including XRP, had bolstered bullish sentiment around the token.

Market Influence and Speculation

With no new catalysts to fuel investor excitement, XRP has been swept up in the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, which has seen a total market loss of $600 billion since the beginning of the year. XRP itself has dropped by 31% since Trump took office.

Optimism in Predictions

Despite the bearish forecasts on Polymarket, signs of optimism remain. On the prediction platform Kelshi, analysts foresee a 48% chance that XRP will outperform Bitcoin and other altcoins in the near future. Furthermore, XRP is among several altcoin ETFs under review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with a decision anticipated by mid-October.

JPMorgan analysts predict that if an XRP ETF is approved, it could attract $8 billion in inflows from investors in its first year, providing a potential long-term bullish catalyst.

Retail interest in XRP remains robust, especially in South Korea, where large investors, referred to as ‘whales,’ purchased $700 million worth of XRP last week.

Derivatives Market Perspective

On the derivatives front, traders on the crypto exchange Deribit are looking at significant price rallies. The most sought-after option contract for XRP is a $5 call contract with a notional value of $3.9 million, indicating that some market participants still anticipate a breakout in 2025.

This is not investment advice.