S&P 500 vs. ISM PMI Trends

The July 2008 to March 2025 S&P 500 vs. ISM PMI chart showed that ISM PMI rose to at least 44 in late 2024 from 48 as of March 2025, indicating expansion in US manufacturing activity.

Previously, S&P 500 trends tracked ISM PMI, rising from 1,330 to 2,660 when PMI increased from 48 to 56 between 2010-2014, and rose from 1,330 to 5,320 when PMI further climbed to 64 between 2020-2024.

This recent spike from 44 to 48 follows a similar rebound before, which could suggest a potential rebound in the crypto markets as well.

• S&P 500 Recovery Needed: A further rise in the S&P 500 to 5,320 or above is necessary if PMI stays well above 52, based on previous structure breaks.
• Bear Market Risk: If PMI drops below 44, the S&P 500 risk falling to 2,660 or lower, indicating a possible bear market.

The current PMI rebound at 48 is favorable for market rally, but it must hold above 48; otherwise, gains could reverse.

Bitcoin Liquidates Short Traders

The Bitcoin Aggregated Liquidation Levels Heatmap (3 days) indicated significant short-position liquidations occurred in the $80K to $90K region when Bitcoin hit its March high of $90K and dropped to $85K.

The right-side liquidation chart shows large short-position liquidations between $85K and $90K amounting to $200 million, even as long-position liquidations remained low at $20M.

The peak of short-term liquidations occurred in March, indicated by a $158 Billion red spike in net positions.

• Price Projections: Bitcoin could rise above $90K or higher if buying pressure sustains above $158B. A price increase above $90K could signal a bullish trend toward $108K.
• Downtrend Risk: If selling pressure prolongs, it may lead the price to fall below $80K, with initial support at $75K.
• Bearish Signal: A breakdown at $80K would suggest potential bearish inclinations, leading to further declines.

Potential $3B Liquidity Sweep

The Bitcoin Exchange Liquidation Map over the last month indicated significant liquidation values at $76K.

The total long liquidation leverage of $3.08 Billion at $76K comes from Binance ($1.89M), OKX ($4.63M), and Bybit ($49.06M). In contrast, total short liquidation leverage is $99.05 Million across $99K.

If BTC goes back to $76K, the long liquidations could trigger a major liquidity sweep, potentially dropping BTC to $71K.

• Bullish Setup Risk: This drop could invalidate the current bullish outlook for the crypto market, shifting the sentiment to bearish.
• Bullish Opportunities: Conversely, if BTC maintains above $84K and surpasses $99K, the $99.05 million worth of short liquidations can spark a rally towards a target of $115.01K.