Dogecoin ($DOGE): Long-Term Holders Show Conviction

Dogecoin ($DOGE) has been a consistent player in cryptocurrency, largely recognized for its meme coin status. Recent data indicates that 15% of Dogecoin’s supply has remained dormant for 6–12 months, signaling strong conviction among long-term holders. Many of these holders acquired their assets prior to the major price rallies in November and December and show no intentions of selling, despite market fluctuations. This behavior suggests confidence in Dogecoin’s future and hesitance to part with assets during volatile conditions.

> 15% of $DOGE supply was last moved 6–12 months ago. These are holders who bought before the Nov/Dec rally – and they’re still holding. That’s a strong signal of conviction.
> — glassnode (@glassnode) March 26, 2025

According to Glassnode, the 15% of Dogecoin that hasn’t moved in the past 6–12 months represents holders who bought prior to the late 2024 price rally. The lack of asset movement indicates strong belief in the future value of Dogecoin. For many, the previous rallies provided a satisfactory entry point, and their commitment remains solid despite price fluctuations. This behavior points to a strong conviction that these holders see value in a long-term investment, possibly in anticipation of future gains.

Rising HODL Waves and Resistance Potential

Since early March 2025, the 3–6 month HODL wave for Dogecoin has increased, indicating that many holders purchased during the January price bounce, which saw prices rise from $0.32 to $0.41. As Dogecoin’s price stabilizes, some holders might opt to exit at break-even levels, particularly if prices return to previous highs, which could create resistance. The growing 3–6 month HODL wave reflects an increasing number of holders, who may apply selling pressure if prices approach the $0.40 mark, potentially hindering short-term upward momentum.

Another factor affecting Dogecoin’s market dynamics is the current state of futures open interest (OI). At around $1 billion, Dogecoin’s futures open interest is significantly lower than the November and December 2024 average of $3 billion. This decline suggests that current price movements are more spot-driven rather than influenced by speculation or leveraged positions. In conjunction, futures volume has decreased notably, with the 7-day simple moving average rising slightly from a low point but remaining near October 2024 levels. This indicates that while there is some renewed interest in Dogecoin futures, overall trading activity remains subdued compared to earlier highs.