Swissblock Analysis on Bitcoin’s Potential

Analytics platform Swissblock suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially surge through resistance levels and achieve new all-time highs for two main reasons.

Current Market Conditions

Swissblock notes that Bitcoin shows similarities to a 2021 bearish double top pattern. However, the prevailing macroeconomic conditions this cycle differ significantly and may enable BTC to reach new record highs.

> “Bitcoin, what is the plan? Bitcoin faces a decisive week. The weekly close wasn’t ideal, echoing the 2021 double top. Without a reversal, distribution risk looms and rallies may stay capped.”
> — Source: Swissblock/X

A double-top is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs when an asset reaches two consecutive peaks, indicating strong resistance where prices struggle to break through.

Despite this, Swissblock believes that Bitcoin is entering a phase where the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates and engage in quantitative easing (QE). This suggests that there may still be significant upward potential for Bitcoin. In 2021, BTC entered a bearish phase while signaling a similar double top pattern as the Fed began raising rates and implementing quantitative tightening (QT).

> “Macro tells a different story: in 2021, BTC peaked at the start of QT and rate hikes. In 2025, we’re approaching QE and rate cuts. Technical fragility versus macro tailwinds. Short-term fragility, but macro liquidity tilts the balance.”
> — Source: Swissblock/X

Renowned crypto trader Cheds has identified a similar pattern for BTC, reminiscent of the lead-up to the bear market in 2021. He warns of a potentially weak market and a trend reversal due to an observed upthrust pattern, often perceived as a bull trap.

> “It’s when you break a resistance level and you come back [down] and fail to hold. That’s the upthrust. We also have the outside bar. This big red candle [on August 14th].”

Cheds draws parallels to 2021, where Bitcoin attempted to overcome resistance near $69,000 but ultimately failed, resulting in a sharp bear market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $116,811, showing a slight increase in the past 24 hours.