Forward Guidance Newsletter

To read full editions, subscribe.

Bitcoin sits more than 20% off its all-time high reached last month, with US bitcoin ETFs experiencing a record outflow yesterday.

There’s been considerable decline in various markets, as Casey noted in recent stock market coverage.

However, a rebound might still be on the horizon. Even though BTC dropped further on Wednesday (at $84,200 by 2 pm ET), the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were mostly flat.

According to Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, “Bull markets peak amid excessive leverage, retail euphoria, and falling BTC dominance—not compressed funding rates.” He added, “Liquidations reset overleveraged positions, creating healthier uptrends as traders re-enter post-shakeout.”

The current memecoin frenzy (e.g., $TRUMP) indicates mid-cycle speculation, which aligns with patterns from 2020-2021. Blockworks’ Katherine Ross reported that recent token launches have indeed contributed to a general exhaustion.

Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise brought a different perspective:

> The M2 money supply has been growing since mid-January, and quantitative tightening may soon reach a natural conclusion, Mena stated in his report.

Mena also highlighted that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator—monitoring bitcoin’s 111-day simple moving average against a 2x multiple of the 350-day SMA—has not yet indicated a market peak.

LMAX Group’s Joel Kruger emphasized traditional markets, where risk appetite has diminished due to global trade tensions and a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve. He stated, “We believe correlations between bitcoin and traditional risk assets can be misleading, with bitcoin capable of generating substantial demand as a portfolio diversification asset due to its store of value properties.” Kruger noted that there is “formidable support” for BTC in the $70,000-$75,000 range, which he believes will serve as an attractive higher low ahead of a major upward move, potentially exceeding $110,000.

Beyond the price, YouHodler’s markets chief Ruslan Lienkha addressed the impact of last week’s Bybit hack on institutional confidence in centralized exchanges. He believes it won’t significantly affect institutions, as they typically follow strict treasury management rules and allocate minimal liquidity to centralized exchanges for routine transactions. He noted that large-scale trades are often handled through OTC markets, while long-term holdings are stored in secure, self-custodied solutions.

In case you missed it, the SEC has concluded its multi-year investigation into Uniswap Labs and will not pursue any enforcement action against the company.