Argentina’s Economic Outlook

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s economy is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025, with an estimated inflation rate of 25.9% by the end of this year, according to the average forecast of analysts surveyed by the central bank’s market expectations survey published on Tuesday.

South America’s second-largest economy has faced a prolonged slump, characterized by one of the world’s highest creeping consumer prices. It has only recently shown signs of emerging from recession.

Argentina’s inflation rate has been in the triple digits since early 2023, peaking near 300% last April before easing to 166% in November, according to official data.

The bank’s market expectations survey predicts last December’s monthly inflation rate to rise slightly to 2.7%, compared to the previous month, before decreasing to 2.5% in January.

The Argentine economy grew 3.9% in last year’s third quarter, compared to the prior quarter, marking its first quarterly expansion since entering a technical recession at the end of 2023.

Analysts surveyed expect economic growth of around 1% through the first half of 2025, accelerating to an annualized rate of 4.5% by the end of the year.

The peso is expected to finish 2025 at 1,205 pesos per U.S. dollar, with the government’s primary fiscal surplus estimated at 11.2 trillion Argentine pesos ($10.8 billion).

($1 = 1,035.0000 Argentine pesos)