Argentina's Trade Surplus Under President Javier Milei

By Hernan Nessi

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina likely experienced a trade surplus for the tenth consecutive month in September under libertarian President Javier Milei, accumulating a net $16 billion in hard currency since he took office, according to analysts in a recent Reuters poll.

The South American nation is grappling with triple-digit inflation, a severe recession, and dwindling foreign currency reserves, recording a trade surplus of $1.28 billion in September, as estimated by analysts.

This reflects an overall net surplus of approximately $16.5 billion since December, when Milei initiated significant economic reforms. This ongoing surplus is a stark contrast to the trade deficits that characterized most of last year.

Milagros Suardi, an economist at consulting firm Eco Go, noted improvements in exports, particularly from the agricultural sector, mining, and hydrocarbons. Argentina is a leading global supplier of soy and corn, in addition to possessing significant shale oil and gas reserves, along with vast lithium deposits, which are crucial for battery production.

Pablo Besmedrisnik, an economist at VDC consultancy, pointed out that enhanced domestic energy production has reversed a severe energy deficit from previous years.

"The energy sector will end 2024 with a positive result (surplus) of around $4.2-5 billion, mainly due to increased local production of hydrocarbons and decreased energy demand," he stated.

Official trade data for September is expected to be released by the INDEC statistics agency on Friday.