Bitcoin’s Short-Term Outlook: Political Factors at Play

Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes believes that the short-term price outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) hinges on US political developments.

The BitMEX founder expressed his thoughts on social media platform X, stating it’s time to “chill out, retrace and wait.”

> “If Trump can’t pass his budget which spends more and hikes the debt ceiling, resume capitulation to levels before election day victory: $75,000 to $70,000. This will test how strong Trump’s grip is on the Republican party.”

Source: Arthur Hayes/X

Hayes also pointed out that many hedge funds that invested in BlackRock’s iShares (IBIT) spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) might sell soon if BTC’s price continues to decline.

> “Bitcoin goblin town incoming:
> Lots of IBIT holders are hedge funds that went long ETF and short CME futures to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short-term US treasuries.
> If that basis drops as BTC falls, then these funds will sell IBIT and buy back CME futures.
> These funds are in profit, and given basis is close to UST yields, they will unwind during US hours and realize their profit. $70,000 I see you mofo!”

Source: Arthur Hayes/X

BTC is currently trading at $84,498. The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has experienced a decline of over 4% in the past 24 hours.

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