Bitcoin’s Potential Rally or Decline

Bitcoin has pulled back within a rising channel, signaling a possible retest of the $80k mark amid increasing leverage. Will the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs maintain bullish momentum?

Bitcoin’s drop below the $85,000 mark suggests a decline in bullish momentum, with BTC down 2% over the past 24 hours.

Liquidations in the crypto market have approached $200 million, with long liquidations near $131 million. Will bearish sentiment push Bitcoin below $80,000?

Bitcoin Potential Breakdown to $80k

On the 4-hour price chart, BTC shows a rising channel pattern. After a short recovery, BTC is testing a long-standing resistance trendline. Bitcoin is currently pulling back and is below the $85,000 mark. This pullback has failed to uphold dominance at the 23.60% Fibonacci level at $84,841. Trading at $84,135, Bitcoin is forming a second-highest price rejection candle, indicating a continued pullback. Increased bearish momentum is suggested as MACD and signal lines cross negatively, signaling a potential sell-off.

Bitcoin Futures Market Shows Shift in Whale Sentiment

Bitcoin’s open interest decreased by 4.45%, now at $52.81 billion. The long-to-short ratio has risen subtly to 0.9861, reflecting more bearish positions. Despite this, the funding rate has fluctuated, occasionally dipping into negative territory. Currently, open interest stands at 0.0051%, showing bullish sentiment toward long positions even with extra premiums.

Alphractal notes increased bearish positions, indicating whales have shifted from locked positions to new short contracts as Bitcoin surpassed $87k. The open interest-to-market cap ratio is rising again, marking increased market leverage, which could lead to new volatility and potential mass liquidations.

> 🐳 Whales Enter Short Positions on Bitcoin as Leverage Increases!
> Whales are closing long positions and opening shorts as BTC surpassed $87k. Additionally, the Open Interest/Market Cap ratio is rising again, signaling increased market leverage.
> — Alphractal (@Alphractal) March 20, 2025

Inflows Surge in Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock Drives the Pack

Despite volatility in derivatives, institutional support for Bitcoin is returning. On March 20, the total daily net inflows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $165.75 million, led by BlackRock with $172.14 million. Other firms like VanEck, Fidelity, and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust recorded smaller inflows. However, Bitwise, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and Franklin Templeton’s Bitcoin ETFs saw minor outflows. As U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive days of inflows, institutional support could trigger a new Bitcoin price rally.

Will Bitcoin Sustain Recovery to Reach $95k?

Despite short-term volatility, growing institutional support is expected to push Bitcoin prices higher. The current recovery is likely to retest support near $83,000. A breach below this could lead to further corrections to $78,350. Conversely, a rebound might challenge the long resistance trendline, with a potential breakout rally extending to around $95,350 based on Fibonacci levels.