By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin

BTC $116,758.05 has dropped 3% in the past 24 hours and is currently about 7% below its June 14 all-time high.

This raises the question of how much further it might drop. In a continuing bull market, double-digit corrections are common, with the largest drawdown reaching 30% since this cycle began in January 2023.

Keep an eye on the CME Bitcoin Futures gap between $114,355 and $115,670; these gaps can often get filled later when prices revisit those levels.

In other news, Strategy (MSTR) has reportedly quadrupled the size of its Stretch (STRC) perpetual preferred stock sale. Analyst Brian Brookshire notes this includes 28 million STRC shares priced at $90 each, totaling over $2.5 billion and potential demand for about 21,500 BTC at $115,000 each.

Demand seems to outstrip supply, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. Since early this month, about 210,000 BTC has been sold by long-term holders (those owning BTC for over 155 days), while around 250,000 BTC has been bought by short-term holders.

With the month-end approaching, Bitcoin is about 8% higher than at the start. Historically, the largest cryptocurrency has returned about 7% in July since 2013.

Ether (ETH) has surged over 46% and is trading near $3,725, topping 40% for the third time since November. Interestingly, it fell in all previous months after such increases.

August typically sees lower market liquidity, so stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto

• July 28: Starknet (STRK) launches v0.14.0 on mainnet.
• July 31, 12 p.m.: Webinar featuring Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan discussing Bitcoin as a potential global reserve currency. [Registration link]
• Aug. 1: Helium Network (HNT), now on Solana, has a halving event.
• Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect.
• Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution.

Macro

• July 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Census Bureau releases June durable goods orders data.
• July 28, 8 a.m.: Mexico releases June unemployment rate data.
• Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs on imports take effect.

Earnings (Estimates)

• July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.30
• July 30: Robinhood (HOOD), post-market, $0.31
• July 31: Coinbase (COIN), post-market, $1.39
• Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19

Token Events

Governance votes & calls

• Aavegotchi DAO considering selling its treasury for VC backing. Voting ends July 25.
• Lido DAO voting on a new validator exit system. Voting ends July 28.
• GnosisDAO voting on a financial proposal for Gnosis Ltd. Voting ends July 28.
• NEAR Protocol considering reducing inflation. Voting ends Aug. 1.

Unlocks

• July 28: Jupiter to unlock $28.77 million.
• Aug. 1: Sui to unlock $162.78 million.

Token Launches

• July 25: Several tokens to be delisted from Bybit.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference in Washington on Sept. 10 offers opportunities to meet with officials responsible for crypto legislation.

Token Talk

Hulk Hogan passed away, causing a surge in branded memecoins. Wrapped ETH token “Hulkamania” pumped over 122,000%, while Solana-based HULK surged over 2,000% in 24 hours but remains below previous heights.

Derivatives Positioning

Open interest for Bitcoin remains high at $34.1 billion. Bitcoin put-call volume is currently at 44,600 contracts.

Market Movements

• BTC down 2.39% at $115,912.54
• ETH down 0.41% at $3,721.30

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.46%
• Total fees: 9.82 BTC / $1,166,840

Technical Analysis

Ethena’s ENA shows strong performance, breaking its downtrend.

Crypto Equities

Many crypto stocks show minor fluctuations in prices, reflecting market trends.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs have recorded net flows of $54.67 billion; ETH ETFs at $8.9 billion.

Chart of the Day

Spot ether ETFs recorded $4.67 billion in net inflows in July, surpassing totals from inception.

While You Were Sleeping

Several significant market developments include corporate strategies around tariffs and the impact of international relations on markets.