Bitcoin and Ethereum Netflows Around Christmas

Bitcoin and Ethereum netflows pictured similar patterns around Christmas
Open Interest trends revealed wary sentiment among traders

Bitcoin (BTC) tends to see a Santa Claus rally in the week leading up to Christmas, before relinquishing those gains the following week. This trend started in 2021, while the year before did not conform to this pattern.

This indicates that alongside Bitcoin, other major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) often experience price declines in the week after Christmas. Will this trend continue in 2024?

Major Assets’ Exchange Flows and Price Correlation

AMBCrypto examined the flow of BTC and ETH to and from exchanges around Christmas time. A 7-day moving average was used to smooth the readings. In 2023, BTC saw a 7-day MA reach 1,481 BTC inflow on December 22, and the 7-day ETH inflow was 32,805. A few days later, the flows reversed direction.

The moving averages for exchange netflows reached -5,915 BTC and -9,626 ETH on December 26 and 27, respectively, indicating accumulation.

Meanwhile, price trends showed sideways movements for BTC and a 10% increase for ETH leading into the final week of the year. These metrics revealed that participants preferred sending tokens to exchanges for profit booking, accumulating more in the following week.

2024 saw a Santa Claus rally in crypto, with BTC reaching $99.6k, ETH at $3,560, and DOGE at $0.342—gaining by 6%-9% in three days leading up to Christmas.

At press time, exchange netflows were trending higher, indicating imminent selling pressure. BTC and ETH prices have already dropped by 5% and 6%, respectively, while Dogecoin fell closer to 9%.

Open Interest Showed Muted Sentiment Before Festivities

The Open Interest (OI) of Dogecoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin can be compared too. In 2023, OI fell sharply from December 22 to 25, before quickly recovering in the first two weeks of January.

In 2024, a sharp OI decline was noted on December 17, attributed to market-wide drops following bearish news from the Federal Reserve that caused the Dow to drop 1,250 points last Wednesday.

OI remained sideways, hinting that market participants were staying sidelined. Traders could seek long entries. An OI and volume surge in the coming days might replicate early 2024 gains in January 2025.

Read Bitcoin’s (BTC) Price Prediction 2025-26