Bitcoin Price Update

• The peak was at $94K, now down to $86K as selling increased.
• It surpassed the price peak 54 weeks post-ETF launch, similar to QQQ.
• Retail traders are investing in new tokens, weakening Bitcoin’s rally.

Bitcoin followed a historical ETF cycle pattern, peaking at $94,468 before entering a correction phase. Selling pressure has been significant since January 20, 2025, with Bitcoin currently priced at $86,170, experiencing an 8.64% weekly decline. This timing aligns almost exactly one year after the 2024 Bitcoin ETF launch, echoing the Nasdaq QQQ ETF pattern from 1999, which also peaked 54 weeks post-launch before correcting. Analysts have observed that Bitcoin and QQQ share notable similarities.

> “I still think about the QQQ and BTC ETF comparison a lot, even though I keep wanting to see some type of divergence. But rather than diverge, they continue to present similarities.”
> — Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) March 8, 2025

Designated “Inauguration Day” on January 20, 2025, marks a potential paradigm shift for market participants. Although some may believe Bitcoin has a favorable trajectory, it has instead followed a downward trend since then. Traders are wary of the historical comparison with the QQQ ETF, noting that both assets reached all-time highs at the 54-week mark, then faced substantial resistance. The post-ETF surge that lifted Bitcoin from under $30,000 to nearly $100,000 may have lost momentum as liquidity dwindles.

Retail Liquidity Drained as Market Faces Correction

Market correction, alongside the ETF cycle, is pushing Bitcoin’s price down. The influx of new celebrity and politically-sponsored meme coins has diverted retail funds away from Bitcoin, resulting in capital rotation and weakening its price stability. As investors flock to speculative projects, Bitcoin’s dominance is declining, feeding into the current downtrend.

If Bitcoin continues to mirror the QQQ pattern, the market might undergo a prolonged consolidation. Historically, QQQ remained within a range for several years before resuming an uptrend. Bitcoin may face similar challenges, with long-term resistance set between $80K and $100K. This correction could persist based on overall liquidity trends and institutional positions. Despite traders’ optimism, historical evidence suggests Bitcoin may need to endure a lengthy accumulation phase before reaching former highs.