Summary of Bitcoin Sentiment
Options analysts downplayed Bitcoin’s breakout prospects in the short term.
U.S. spot BTC ETFs products saw +$580M in outflows in the past week.
Bitcoin (BTC) option traders have increased bets on BTC rallying to $110K by the end of March. However, analysts caution potential losses amid a sideways market.
According to the options analytics platform Amberdata, traders doubled down on $110K March calls in February. The firm warned that these bets could face losses:
> “Looking at the month-to-date flows for on-screen traders… the buying of March $110k calls has been the most active trade. I can’t help but think volatility (Vol) buyers are going to get burned here.”
Amberdata’s Greg Magadini attributes his sideways projection to bearish meme-coin headlines and BTC’s lukewarm response to bullish updates, such as Abu Dhabi’s significant bid on BlackRock’s IBIT:
> “With bearish memecoin market drag (a source of bearish headlines) such as the $Libra drop, pump-fun mania, and growing supply of alts, I see this market in stand-still. Together this reinforces my ‘sideways’ market, lower volatility market thesis.”
BTC Range-Bound
QCP Capital, a prominent crypto options desk, also supports the outlook of extended price range. Their daily market update noted:
> “The market remains hesitant to take on decay even at low vol levels, reminiscent of BTC’s range-bound price action in Q2-Q3 last year. Instead, flows have primarily focused on near-dated volatility selling and range trading rather than positioning for a major breakout.”
Additionally, crypto analyst Mathew Hyland flagged a bearish divergence in the weekly chart, indicating BTC’s market share might drop soon.
Currently, BTC is valued at $95K and has been below $100K for nearly two weeks. Furthermore, the risk-off sentiment has been observed across U.S. spot ETF products, which experienced combined outflows of $585.65M in the past week. This muted demand from ETF products could further hinder BTC’s recovery efforts.
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