Bitcoin Price Trends

Bitcoin price has been stuck in a tight range, but historical trends and on-chain data suggest a breakout could be coming soon.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trapped between highs of $84,000 and $82,000, with buyers finding it challenging to push higher. Although the market remains cautious, historical patterns and data indicate a potential breakout.

According to analyst Rekt Capital’s March 18 post on X, Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors its movement in June 2021. After a steep decline, Bitcoin consolidated between the 21-week and 50-week EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) before breaking out in late July and reaching an all-time high in November. Currently, Bitcoin is in a similar range, prompting speculation that history could repeat itself.

> #BTC
> Back in June 2021, the price was consolidating between the 21-week EMA (green) and 50-week EMA (blue) after a crash.
> Right now, Bitcoin is consolidating between the same EMAs after a crash.
> (By the way, $BTC indeed broke out from its triangle by late July 2021 to reach new All… pic.twitter.com/Ok4Grzvit8)
> — Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 17, 2025

Rekt Capital also noted that Bitcoin’s selling pressure is decreasing. Recent sell-offs have occurred with lower-than-usual volume, indicating that sellers are losing momentum. This shift has opened the door for buyers; last week was dominated by buy activity. Strong uptrends have historically followed such changes.

CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin is currently undergoing a deleveraging phase, where excess market leverage is being removed. Historically, these phases have created buying opportunities in the short to medium term and enabled recoveries. Previous market cycles show that Bitcoin often experiences strong price rebounds after leverage resets.

> The BTC market is undergoing deleveraging
> “This chart highlights such reset phases by identifying moments when the 90-day open interest change turns negative. Historically, each past deleveraging like this has provided good short-to-medium-term opportunities.” – @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/8VRH2oVaTD
> — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 17, 2025

The rise in the 3-6 month UTXO age bands, indicating how long Bitcoin has been held, is another significant indicator. CryptoQuant’s March 15 analysis indicated a rise in this category, mirroring trends observed during the mid-2024 correction. This suggests more investors are holding their Bitcoin instead of selling, decreasing the available supply. In previous cycles, such accumulation has played a critical role in forming market bottoms and sparking new rallies.

Despite these positive signals, outflows from US-based Bitcoin ETFs have continued for five consecutive weeks, the longest streak on record. In April 2024, four weeks of outflows marked the previous record.

Although this indicates short-term uncertainty, Bitcoin may be poised for a significant move if selling pressure decreases and accumulation increases. A breakout could occur soon if historical patterns hold true.