After Trump’s Statements

After Trump’s statements on the strategic reserve in cryptocurrencies, and the rebound of Bitcoin’s price, on Deribit the hypothesis of a return to $100,000 is gaining traction.

According to Amberdata, the number of active positions on call options with a strike at $100,000 has increased by 1,163 contracts (more than 100 million dollars) on Deribit. This is the highest figure among all options listed on the exchange.

Summary

• Deribit: record of call options on Bitcoin with a strike at $100k after Trump’s announcement on the strategic crypto reserve
• The options on Bitcoin
• The “Trump put”
• The problem of the strategic reserve

Deribit: Record of Call Options on Bitcoin with a Strike at $100k

Deribit is absolutely one of the main markets in the world for options on the price of Bitcoin.

This is a professional-level platform for the exchange of crypto derivative products, and in particular options.

At this moment, the Open Interest on Bitcoin options expiring at the end of the month on Deribit reaches almost 11 billion dollars. Considering all expirations and all crypto, it rises to more than 24 billion dollars, out of a total slightly below 32 billion across all crypto exchanges.

Note that currently 66% of the Open Interest is on call options (i.e., purchase), while on put options it is only at 34%.

Options are derivatives that allow those who purchase them to sell (put) or buy (call) an asset at a certain predefined price.

The Options on Bitcoin

After yesterday’s statements by Trump, the call option with a strike of $100,000 on Deribit recorded the largest jump in terms of open interest in the last 24 hours. This means that many speculators have purchased call options on Bitcoin relative to that price.

Furthermore, yesterday’s rebound also reversed the trend, with call options ending up surpassing puts in Open Interest. Note that yesterday the rebound of BTC stopped at $95,000, so the jump in calls with a strike at $100,000 clearly signals a spread of optimism.

However, it should not be forgotten that yesterday’s rebound was partly caused by forced liquidations of leveraged short positions, which may need to be addressed in the coming days.

The “Trump Put”

The markets seem to be starting to convince themselves of a sort of so-called “Trump put.” In other words, it is considered possible that from now on, the President and his administration might intervene in favor of the crypto markets during times of particular difficulty.

To be fair, last week the price of Bitcoin did suffer a bit, but without returning to pre-election levels. The real problem, however, was with altcoins, and it seems that Trump cares about these as well.

Many traders are betting on a possible return of Bitcoin’s price to $100,000, even if in the meantime the inefficiencies mentioned above could result in a return well below $90,000. However, this does not change the fact that $100,000 is becoming the level that everyone will be watching in the coming days or weeks.

It should not be forgotten that on Friday, March 7, the first Crypto Summit will be held at the White House by President Trump himself with members of the Presidential Working Group on cryptocurrencies, particularly crypto czar David Sacks.

This could mean that while there might be slight bear pressures, there could also be bullish pressures, even in the short term.

The Problem of the Strategic Reserve

However, one should not expect the establishment of the USA’s strategic reserve in cryptocurrencies to be announced on March 7. The problem is that, having wanted to add some altcoins, it will be more difficult to get this decision through Congress.

A potential disappointment due to a decision that is not announced could again create discontent in the crypto markets. While it remains possible that such a strategic reserve will be established, the timing may not be particularly short.

However, if they were to start with a reserve in only BTC, the times could shorten significantly. Currently, the markets do not seem to believe that the establishment of such a reserve is possible in the short term due to the addition of altcoins. If, on March 7, a two-phase path is announced focusing only on BTC, then the reaction of the markets could be much more positive.

As it stands, on Polymarket, there is only a 20% probability that Trump will succeed in establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days, and it is reasonable to imagine that the timeline could extend even further if he decides to pursue altcoins immediately.