Bitcoin’s Outlook for 2026

Bitcoin’s price could see significant upside in 2026, defying traditional four-year market cycles, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.

The prediction comes as analysts debate whether Bitcoin (BTC) will follow its historical pattern or adhere to the traditional halving cycle and peak soon.

Positive Years Ahead

Hougan declared, “I bet 2026 is an up year,” in a recent video. “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.” He believes the four-year halving cycle “is dead” for reasons such as the halving’s diminishing importance and a favorable interest rate environment.

Since April, US President Donald Trump has pressured Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, which could positively impact Bitcoin as decreased rates make traditional assets less appealing.

Hougan stated that the likelihood of significant pullbacks has diminished due to increased regulatory clarity, saying, “Blow-up risk is attenuated.” He emphasized that pro-crypto forces would surpass historical market cycles, suggesting 2026 will be favorable for Bitcoin.

Additionally, he pointed to Bitcoin treasury companies as a significant risk, adding, “Bears watching and is significant.”

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $118,169, reflecting a 10.17% increase over the past month.

A Steady Rally

Hougan predicts Bitcoin’s surge will be steady rather than aggressive, saying, “I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle.” He acknowledged potential volatility but remains optimistic about sustained growth.

Only days earlier, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju claimed the four-year cycle theory “is dead,” noting the shift in selling patterns among investors.

However, some analysts, like Rekt Capital, caution that Bitcoin may have limited price expansion left, particularly if it follows the 2020 cycle, predicting a peak around October 2025 following the April 2024 halving.