Recent Crypto Market Changes

The recent crypto market downturn has led to a significant shift in the popularity of Bitcoin (BTC) options bets. The former favored $120,000 bitcoin options bet has now given way to the $100,000 call option, indicating that traders are reassessing their bullish expectations.

As of the latest data, the $100,000 call stands out as the most popular BTC options contract, featuring a notional open interest of $1.55 billion. Notional open interest reflects the dollar value of active option contracts at any point in time.

Conversely, the $120,000 call, which was the frontrunner until last month, has dropped to the second position with a notional open interest of $1.33 billion.

A call option grants the buyer the right—without the obligation—to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date, typically suggesting a bullish outlook for the market. An accumulation of open interest in higher strike out-of-the-money call options like $100,000 and $120,000 points to prevailing bullish expectations.

The preference for the $100,000 strike signifies a more conservative bet among traders in light of recent price fluctuations, which saw Bitcoin dip below $80,000. This change may also reflect a broader reassessment of bullish sentiment across the market.

The 25-delta risk reversals, which measure the disparity between implied volatility for higher strike calls compared to lower strike puts, currently display negative readings. This indicates a bias toward protective put options leading up to May’s expiry, revealing apprehensions regarding a prolonged price decline.

Despite the cautious outlook, the overall pricing remains bullish for call options beyond May. As of the latest reports, the total value of calls is over $16 billion, nearly double the $8.35 billion positioned in put options.