Crypto Market Trends: Are Cycles Breaking?

Crypto markets traditionally followed four-year cycles influenced by Bitcoin halving, interest rates, and industry crashes. However, experts now indicate these patterns are waning, with new forces at play.

Is the 4-Year Cycle Breaking Down?

Bitcoin recently surpassed new all-time highs, reaching over $123K. Typically, Bitcoin cycles span around 1,070 days from a market bottom to the next peak, predicting potential run continuation until October 20, 2025.

> 🚨 BITCOIN CYCLE ISN’T OVER 🚨
> Each cycle has lasted about 1,070 days from the bottom of a bear market to its peak.
> If this trend continues, the bull market may last until October 20, 2025. 🤔
> — Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) July 26, 2025

Long-Term Forces Will Outpower the 4-Year Cycle

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the four-year crypto cycle is disintegrating. He observes that Bitcoin halvings hold less importance with each occurrence, while interest rates are becoming favorable for crypto. Regulatory clarity and institutional players reduce the likelihood of major industry failures.

ETF adoption is in its infancy, which Hougan anticipates will be a significant trend over 5-10 years. With institutional investments gradually increasing from pensions and endowments to major banks like JP Morgan, he predicts a robust future for Bitcoin.

> “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle, and 2026 is likely to be promising,” stated Hougan.

The Biggest Risk?

However, Hougan identifies the rise of Treasury companies as a notable risk. Recently, 22 public companies included Bitcoin on their balance sheets, raising that total to 160.

> #Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.
> My predictions were based on old patterns, but they no longer apply. This time, long-term whales are buying from old whales instead of retail.
> — Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 24, 2025

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju asserts the old cycle is finished, observing that market predictions based on whale activities don’t align with current trends anymore.

BTC Still On Track

Some analysts maintain the four-year cycle, pointing out that Bitcoin is still aligned with past cycles. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer points to recent peaks indicating the cycle is still active but weaker.

As of now, Bitcoin is about 975 days into its current cycle, historically indicating a peak around 1,060 days. Onchain indicators suggest a last parabolic run could push BTC toward $250,000 by mid-October.

Pi Cycle Top Is Speeding Up

Despite claims of a different cycle, optimism retains historic parallels. Analysts note the Pi Cycle Top Indicator is accelerating, previously set for January 2027, is now projected for late 2026—and could shift to 2025 if current momentum persists.

> Bitcoin & The Pi Cycle Top Indicator – A Crucial Update
> — Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 25, 2025