Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin fell by 8.57% over the last 24 hours alone
Crypto’s accumulation score is still below 0.5, with big entities in the net distribution range

After recovering to reclaim $95k on the charts, Bitcoin (BTC) once again retraced to a low of $82k. This seemed indicative of the fact that Bitcoin’s average volatility has more than doubled.

When the market behaves like this, there are few accumulation addresses unless under speculative demand arising from external factors. Every time this speculation disappears, these addresses turn to selling.

According to Glassnode, this means that Bitcoin still remains stuck within a distribution phase.

A distribution phase?

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score has remained below 0.5 for 58 consecutive days – marking an extended period of net distribution. In fact, the ongoing streak is now approaching the average duration for distribution over 1 year, suggesting that it’s still in line with previous cycles.

Over the past year, the distribution phase had an average of 65 days while accumulation cycles lasted 57 days. In total, BTC saw 170 days in relative accumulation (>0.5) and 196 days in relative distribution (<0.5). Therefore, the accumulation and distribution phases have alternated within a 57-65 day window on average. With the Trend Score flashing a reading of 0.9 at press time, it suggested that big players are still in a net distribution regime, with no confirmed transition to accumulation yet.

Market behavior among large entities can be further validated as whale and exchange balance changes have turned positive. It spiked to 12.9k BTC from -75.8k. This means that whales are doing more deposits into exchanges than withdrawals, reflecting an intention to sell. With large entities selling, the market might take longer for a sustained transition.

What does this mean for BTC?

As can be seen, Bitcoin is still within the distribution phase. The market faces significant selling pressure, as evidenced by the negative cumulative volume delta. Over the last 24 hours, this selling activity has strongly affected Bitcoin’s price action, which dropped by 8.57% to trade at $83,908 at press time.

In simple terms, until the market transitions to accumulation, Bitcoin will continue to decline. However, based on the prevailing market sentiment and external factors, there’s no clear signal for this to happen just yet. If investors continue to lack motivation to accumulate while holders keep selling, we could see BTC drop to $82,500. Organic demand could return once the macroeconomic uncertainties affecting the market cool down, and a shift in investor sentiment could enable the crypto to reclaim higher levels.