Bitcoin Market Update
Bitcoin’s short-term holders held the market with a net position change value of +750k.
BTC declined over the past week by 12.37%.
Since hitting $108k, Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to maintain upward momentum and has traded in a consolidation range between $92k and $97k.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $93,905, marking a 2.18% decline on daily charts, while the cryptocurrency has dropped by 12.37% on weekly charts. This dip has left most short-term holders at a loss, particularly those who bought Bitcoin in November. The widening loss margins among short-term holders have analysts deliberating over the next moves.
Bitcoin’s LTH vs STH Net Position Change
According to CryptoQuant, the 30-day net position change for long-term holders (LTH) has turned negative, hitting -750k BTC. Despite this, Bitcoin prices have held strong without significant drops due to short-term holders (STH) accumulating as BTC rallied to new ATHs.
The net position change for short-term holders surged to a positive value of +750k BTC. But, even with accumulation, the STH SOPR turned negative, indicating STH holders are operating at a loss.
Short-term holders now face two choices: hold and wait for BTC prices to recover or buy at lower prices. If STH demand remains strong and LTH demand neutral or positive, it could create positive momentum. However, if STH decides to sell at a loss, it could increase selling pressure and drive prices down, affecting BTC’s price trajectory.
Analyzing the spent output age bands, it becomes apparent that short-term holders are actively selling. They have spent more coins than LTH, with coins held for one day hitting 56 million, and those held for a week reaching 9 million. Consequently, the past week saw a spike in the exchange supply ratio, suggesting a high call for speculative trading among STH traders, even at a loss to acquire tokens at lower rates.
Implications on BTC Without Confidence
Short-term holders currently hold significant sway in the market. Should they continue to sell, BTC risks facing higher selling pressure, potentially driving prices down further.
With STH actively selling their tokens, it indicates a lack of market confidence and a tendency to buy at lower levels post loss sales. If their net position changes and turns negative like LTH, Bitcoin could experience further drops. Thus, if this bearish sentiment persists, BTC could drop to $92,130. However, if STH demand continues, BTC will aim for recovery towards $95,800.
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