Citi Lowers Gold Price Targets

Citi has revised its short-term and long-term gold price targets, projecting that prices could drop below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026 due to declining investment demand and an improving global growth outlook.

The revisions include lowering the 0-3 month gold price target to $3,300 per ounce from $3,500, and the 6-12 month target to $2,800 per ounce from $3,000.

Price Consolidation

Gold prices are expected to consolidate between $3,100-$3,500 per ounce in Q3. This is supported by geopolitical risks, potential changes in U.S. tariff policy, and U.S. budget concerns, before a downward trend starts.

Investment Outlook

Citi notes that investment demand for gold is likely to diminish in late 2025 and 2026, particularly as President Trump’s popularity and U.S. growth become more apparent ahead of the mid-terms. They speculate that gold could drop to around $2,500-$2,700/oz by the second half of 2026.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

In a bullish scenario, gold prices might exceed $3,500/oz in Q3, attributed to increased hedging and investment demand amidst U.S. economic and geopolitical tensions. Conversely, in a bearish outlook, prices could fall below $3,000/oz as tariff disputes resolve, geopolitical fears lessen, and the U.S. economy avoids a hard landing. Emerging market central bank purchases might still support increased prices. However, Citi attributes only a 20% probability to both the bullish and bearish cases.

Silver Price Forecast

In contrast to the outlook for gold, Citi projects silver prices to rise to $40 per ounce over the next 6-12 months, driven by tighter availability and strong demand. In a bullish scenario, silver could reach $46 per ounce by Q3 of 2025 if there is a faster resolution to the U.S.-China trade war and continued hawkish Federal Reserve policy.