Current Climate Policies Warn of Warming Beyond 3°C

By Gloria Dickie

TORONTO (Reuters) – A United Nations report warns that current climate policies could lead to a global temperature rise of over 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the century's end—more than double the 1.5°C target established nearly a decade ago.

The annual Emissions Gap report assesses countries' climate promises versus the actions necessary to meet targets. It indicates the world may face up to 3.1°C (5.6°F) of warming if significant emission reductions are not undertaken.

Governments committed to the Paris Agreement in 2015 aiming to limit warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) to avoid severe impacts.

U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that the world is “teetering on a planetary tightrope,” urging leaders to close the emissions gap or risk a climate disaster.

Global greenhouse gas emissions surged by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, reaching an unprecedented 57.1 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent through the report's findings.

Under current pledges, global temperatures are projected to increase between 2.6°C (4.7°F) and 2.8°C (5°F) by 2100, consistent with the previous three years' results.

Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report, noted minimal progress by G20 nations towards achieving their 2030 targets. Currently, the world has warmed by about 1.3°C (2.3°F).

Nations are set to convene at the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan next month, aiming to build on last year's commitments to phase out fossil fuels.

The Baku negotiations will guide each nation's updated emissions strategy, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), due in February 2025.

To stay below 1.5°C, countries must collectively reduce their annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030, and 57% by 2035—a challenging but essential goal.

Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, called on nations to leverage the Baku talks to intensify their NDC efforts. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts,” she emphasized.