Bitcoin and Altcoins Update

Bitcoin and most altcoins have bounced back slightly this week, with total crypto market capitalization approaching the $3 trillion mark.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained stuck above $86,000, while meme coins like Pepe (PEPE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Floki (FLOKI) soared by double digits this week.

Economic Warning from Mark Zandi

Mark Zandi, one of the top economists in the U.S. and Chief Economist at Moody’s, has warned that the country may be heading toward a recession.

In a post on X, Zandi stated that his top recession indicator is “flashing bright yellow,” signaling a potential downturn in 2025. He noted a sharp drop in consumer confidence—down 17 points over the past three months.

His number one recession indicator occurs when confidence drops 20 points over three months, leading to decreased consumer spending and ultimately causing a recession. A technical recession occurs when the U.S. economy contracts for two consecutive quarters.

> FYI, consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is down 17 points over the past 3 months. Remember my #1 recession watch indicator is that if confidence falls by 20 points over 3 months, consumers stop spending and recession ensues about 6 months later. This…
> — Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) March 25, 2025

Bitcoin and Altcoins in a Recession

A recession is generally damaging for any economy, leading to rising unemployment rates and business closures. However, history shows that risky assets often perform well during significant downturns. For instance, U.S. stocks began a decade-long bull run after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

More recently, after an initial decline, stocks and cryptocurrencies witnessed a strong resurgence. Bitcoin surged from $4,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 in November 2021, while Ethereum jumped from a low of $80 to $4,940 in the same period.

This rebound was largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s history of intervening during downturns through rate cuts and quantitative easing, which encourages a risk-on sentiment across markets. If a recession occurs, as Zandi warns, Bitcoin and other altcoins may benefit from this macro backdrop.

Conversely, should the U.S. avoid a recession, Bitcoin and altcoins could also thrive. Zandi suggests that this recession would be self-inflicted by Donald Trump’s tariffs. Therefore, reducing or eliminating these tariffs could push investors back to risky assets.

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