Singapore’s Economic Outlook for 2024

Economists have upgraded their expectations for Singapore’s growth in 2024, based on a survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) published on Wednesday. This optimism is driven by better-than-expected external growth.

Key Findings

• The median forecast for economic growth in 2023 is now 2.6%, an increase from 2.4% predicted in earlier surveys.
• Growth is also anticipated to be 2.5% in 2025.
• Most economists do not foresee changes in monetary policy during the upcoming review in October.
• Projected annual growth for the third quarter of 2023 is 2.6%.

Sector Growth

The September survey indicated increased growth expectations for the finance, insurance, construction, and wholesale/retail trade sectors in 2024.

Trade Ministry Adjustments

• The trade ministry revised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to a range of 2.0% to 3.0%, up from 1.0% to 3.0%, following a strong Q2 performance of 2.9%.

Inflation Forecasts

• Median headline inflation for 2024 is projected at 2.6%, down from 2.8% in June.
• Median core inflation is forecasted at 2.9%, slightly reduced from 3.0% previously.
• As of July, core inflation was at 2.5%, marking the smallest annual increase in over two years. MAS anticipates further easing in core inflation by the end of 2023, forecasting it to be between 2.5% and 3.5% for the year.

Monetary Policy

The MAS maintained its monetary policy settings in July, with no changes since tightening measures were implemented in October 2022, which was the fifth consecutive tightening. Ongoing concerns about growth have led authorities to adopt a cautious approach.