France's 2025 Budget:

PARIS (Reuters) – France's 2025 belt-tightening budget will be sent to the Senate next week, but many believe the government might soon need to bypass lawmakers using a controversial constitutional measure to push the legislation through.

With public finances spiraling out of control, the 2025 budget bill aims to save 60 billion euros through tax increases and spending cuts, targeting a reduction in the deficit to 5% of economic output next year from over 6% this year.

Lacking a parliamentary majority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier expressed to L'Ouest France last week that he sees little chance of passing the budget without invoking article 49.3 of the constitution.

Article 49.3, used by the prior administration to enforce President Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms amid public protests, enables adoption of the law without a vote, but it often incites a no-confidence motion against the government.

Barnier’s fragile coalition is supported by the far-right National Rally (RN), which could collaborate with leftist parties to overthrow the government, rendering the use of 49.3 a precarious choice for him.

Currently, Barnier has chosen to let parliament engage in the review and debate of the budget, aiming to convey that he respects lawmakers' legislative role before he takes more decisive actions.

However, with the overall budget vote slated for December 12, Barnier’s patience may be diminishing.

Current Status of the Budget Legislation

In an unparalleled event for contemporary France, a majority in the lower house of parliament recently rejected the government’s 2025 budget bill, heavily amended by leftist lawmakers. A left-wing coalition, while holding the largest block of seats, still lacks an outright majority, and proposed adding 75 billion euros in tax hikes to the bill.

Budget Minister Laurent Saint Martin criticized these additions as unacceptable “Frankenstein” legislation, claiming they breach both constitutional and EU fiscal regulations.

Following this rejection, the Senate will review the government’s original, unaltered bill on Monday, Nov. 25, ahead of the final vote set for December 12.

What’s Next?

Senate finance committee chair Claude Raynal stated that the upper house, where Barnier's party holds the most seats but lacks a majority, is expected to alter the bill less than the lower house.

After the Senate vote, a joint committee of lawmakers from both houses will have a tight timeline to negotiate a new version of the bill, likely facing rejection again in the lower house. As a result, the government may need to invoke article 49.3 to pass the budget without a voting process.

Consequences of Bypassing Parliament

If the government uses article 49.3, left-wing lawmakers plan to initiate a no-confidence vote against Barnier’s administration, which could risk its stability.

To retain power, Barnier will require RN’s abstention. Although some RN members have threatened non-cooperation, party leader Jordan Bardella indicated that their decision will hinge on the budget's final adjustments aligning with their demands.

The RN must also gauge the benefits of instigating a political crisis, given that new legislative elections won’t occur until next summer.

Additionally, a recent request from prosecutors for RN leader Marine Le Pen to face a mandatory five-year political ban due to alleged EU fund embezzlement may affect the RN’s support for Barnier, as speculated by analysts. Le Pen refutes the accusations.

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