By Ingrid Melander

PARIS (Reuters) –

French Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote on Monday, expected to lose, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest economy deeper into political crisis.

Here is what you need to know:

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

France’s politics have become increasingly fraught since President Emmanuel Macron called a snap parliamentary election in 2024, resulting in a fragmented parliament.

Macron’s ruling alliance, lacking a majority since his re-election in 2022, saw its numbers decline, while the far-right National Rally emerged as the largest party. Macron’s control weakened as public debt climbed to 113.9% of GDP, exacerbated by spending during the COVID and cost-of-living crises. The previous year’s deficit was nearly double the EU’s 3% limit.

Bayrou, acting as Macron’s fourth prime minister, proposed a budget for 2026 requiring €44 billion in savings including pension freezes, healthcare cuts, and scrapping two public holidays. The proposal ignited backlash, prompting him to call a confidence vote, which the opposition labeled as political suicide.

WHAT HAPPENS ON SEPTEMBER 8?

The National Assembly convenes at 15:00 (13:00 GMT).

Bayrou will open with a speech pleading his case, addressing the dire state of France’s finances. With little hope of victory, this speech will be more for record-keeping than for convincing lawmakers. Each of the 10 parliamentary groups will respond, followed by a vote using paper ballots.

The outcome is based on an absolute majority of votes cast, not total seats. If the government loses, Bayrou must submit his resignation to Macron. The results are expected around 17:30-18:00 GMT.

WHAT ARE MACRON’S OPTIONS IF BAYROU LOSES?

The situation is entirely in Macron’s hands. He has ruled out snap elections if Bayrou falls and will need to appoint a new prime minister.

This could be from the centre-left after four centre-right attempts failed, or possibly a technocrat, as there are no rules mandating his choice. If he delays, Bayrou may stay on in a caretaker capacity.

The National Rally and hard-left France Unbowed demand snap elections and Macron’s resignation. At a recent lunch, centrist and conservative parties agreed that dissolving parliament wouldn’t resolve the crisis, and a deal with the Socialists might be viable.

A government source confirmed that a snap election isn’t currently being considered. Possible new prime ministers being discussed include Finance Minister Eric Lombard, former Socialist prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve, and Court of Auditors chief Pierre Moscovici.

Beyond the government’s fate, France faces a tense September:

• September 10: Nationwide protests by the grassroots movement Bloquons Tout.
• September 12: Fitch reviews France’s credit rating; a downgrade is possible.
• September 18: Strikes and protests organized by trade unions.

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