Major Brokerages Anticipate Fed Rate Cut
(Reuters) – Major brokerages, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Goldman Sachs, have reiterated their expectation of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, ahead of key consumer price index (CPI) data due later on Wednesday.
Economists polled by Reuters expect headline inflation to increase 0.3% in November on a monthly basis, taking the annual rate to 2.7% from 2.6% in October. The CPI data is the last piece of crucial economic data to be released ahead of the Fed's next monetary policy meeting due on Dec. 17-18.
Rate Cut Estimates (in bps)
| Brokerages | Dec'2024 | 2025 | Fed Funds Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 25 | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of June) |
| Barclays (LON:BARC) | 25 | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of 2025) |
| Macquarie | 25 | 25 | 4.00%-4.25% |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through Sept 2025) |
| J.P. Morgan | 25 | 75 | 3.75% (through Sept 2025) |
| UBS Global Research | 25 | 125 | 3.00%-3.25% (through end of 2025) |
| TD Securities | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Morgan Stanley | 25 | 100 | 3.375% (Q4 2025 through June 2025) |
| Jefferies | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Nomura | – | 50 | 4.125% (through end of 2025) |
| Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) | 25 | No Rate Cuts | 4.375% |
| Citigroup (NYSE:C) | – | 25 | 3.00%-3.25% (H1 2025) |
| Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) | 25 | – | – |
| HSBC | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% |
*UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group.
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