Interest Rate Cut Predictions by U.S. Federal Reserve
(Reuters) – Most brokerages anticipate a 25 basis points interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September, awaiting clearer communication from Chair Jerome Powell after the Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
Powell’s upcoming address follows the central bank’s release of July meeting minutes, indicating a “vast majority” of policymakers support easing policies, likely commencing next month.
Four brokerages—J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, UBS Global Wealth Management, and Wells Fargo—predict a 50 bps rate cut at the next Fed meeting.
Additionally, nearly all brokerages foresee interest rate cuts in the remaining three meetings this year, a consensus supported by 55 of 101 economists surveyed by Reuters.
Rate Cut Estimates (in bps)
| Brokerage | Sept | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| BofA Global Research | 25 | — | 25 |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 | 25 | 25 |
| J.P. Morgan | 50 | 50 | 25 |
| Wells Fargo | 50 | 50 | 25 |
| Nomura | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Morgan Stanley | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Citigroup | 50 | 50 | 25 |
| TD Securities | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Peel Hunt | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Barclays | 25 | 25 | 25 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions of UBS Group.
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