Interest Rate Projections for 2025
(Reuters) – Most brokerages anticipate a slower pace of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2025, especially in light of the upcoming non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. This uncertainty arises largely from President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, which is predicted to heighten inflation pressures, thereby influencing the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy decisions.
In its January policy meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remarked that there would not be an immediate reduction in rates until job and inflation data warrant such action.
Rate Cut Estimates by Brokerage Firms for 2025
| Brokerage | Mar 2025 | 2025 No. of Cuts | Fed Funds Rate (end of 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% |
| Barclays | No rate cut | 1 | 4.00-4.25% |
| BNP Paribas | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% |
| Goldman Sachs | No rate cut | 2 | 3.75-4.00% |
| J.P. Morgan | No rate cut | – | 3.75-4.00% |
| Morgan Stanley | No rate cut | 1 | 4.00-4.25% |
| Deutsche Bank | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% |
| ING | No rate cut | 2 | 3.75-4.00% |
| UBS Global Wealth | No rate cut | – | 3.75-4.00% |
| Citigroup | No rate cut | 5 | 3.00-3.25% |
| Macquarie | No rate cut | 1 | 4.00-4.25% |
| Berenberg | No rate cut | 0 | 4.25-4.50% |
| Wells Fargo | No rate cut | 2 | 3.75-4.00% |
| Nomura | No rate cut | 0 | – |
| HSBC | No rate cut | 3 | 3.50-3.75% |
- UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management operate as distinct, independent divisions within UBS Group.
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