U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut Expectations
(Reuters) – Brokerages, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Goldman Sachs, have reiterated their expectation of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the central bank's policy meeting later on Wednesday.
Some observers forecast a "hawkish cut", while the focus will also be on policymakers' updated interest rate outlooks and economic forecasts covering the first months of the incoming Trump administration.
Rate Cut Estimates (in bps)
| Brokerages | Dec 2024 | 2025 | Fed Funds Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 25 | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of June) |
| Barclays (LON:BARC) | 25 | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of 2025) |
| Macquarie | 25 | 25 | 4.00%-4.25% |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 75 | 3.50%-3.75% (through September 2025) |
| J.P. Morgan | 25 | 75 | 3.75% (through September 2025) |
| UBS Global Research | 25 | 125 | 3.00%-3.25% (through end of 2025) |
| TD Securities | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Morgan Stanley | 25 | 100 | 3.375% (Q4 2025) (through June 2025) |
| Jefferies | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Nomura | 25 | 25 | 4.00%-4.25% (through end of 2025) |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) | 25 | No Rate Cuts | 4.375% |
| Citigroup (NYSE:C) | 25 | – | 3.00%-3.25% (H1 2025) |
| Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) | 25 | – | – |
| HSBC | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% |
| Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) | 25 | 25 | 4.00%-4.25% |
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group.
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