U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions
(Reuters) – Major brokerages reiterated their view of a 25-basis-point (bp) interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December after U.S. consumer prices for October increased as expected, even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there is no need to rush rate cuts given a strong U.S. economy.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.6% in October, data showed on November 13, while the core rate, which strips out food and energy, rose 3.3% – in line with market expectations.
Citigroup (NYSE:C) stuck to its view of a cut of 50 bps in December, while all major brokerages continue to see a 25-bps cut post the inflation report.
Following the CPI data, Powell affirmed in prepared remarks delivered at a Dallas Fed event on November 14 that ongoing economic growth, a solid job market, and inflation above its 2% target means the central bank does not need to rush to lower interest rates.
> "We now see a greater risk that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) could slow the pace sooner, possibly as soon as the December or January meetings," Goldman analysts said in a note dated November 14 following Powell's remarks.
Forecasts from Major Brokerages after the CPI Data:
| Brokerages | Dec'2024 | 2025 | Fed Funds Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 25 | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of June) |
| Barclays (LON:BARC) | 25 | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% (end of 2025) |
| Macquarie | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through September 2025) |
| J.P. Morgan | 25 | 75 | 3.75% (through September 2025) |
| UBS Global Research | 25 | 125 | 3.00%-3.25% (through end of 2025) |
| TD Securities | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) | 25 | 100 | 3.375% (Q4 2025) |
| Jefferies | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Nomura | 25 | 25 | 4.00%-4.25% (through end of 2025) |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) | 25 | – | – |
| Citigroup | 50 | – | – |
> Note: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group.
Forecasts from Major Brokerages before the CPI Data:
| Brokerages | 2024 | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Barclays | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Macquarie | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| J.P. Morgan | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 | – | – |
| Citigroup | 25 | 50 | – |
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