Interest Rate Cut Forecasts by Major Brokerages
(Reuters) – Major brokerages including J.P. Morgan, Barclays, and Goldman Sachs maintain expectations of a 25-basis-point (bp) interest-rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December.
The Federal Reserve implemented a similar rate reduction at its Nov. 6-7 meeting. As policymakers assess the evolving economic landscape with President-elect Donald Trump set to take office, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated they would evaluate implications for stable inflation and maximum employment.
Citigroup diverges slightly, predicting a 50 bp cut in December, while all other major brokerages foresee the standard 25 bp reduction.
Forecasts from Major Brokerages After the November Policy Meeting
| Brokerage | Dec'2024 | 2025 | Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 25 | 125 | 3.0%-3.25% |
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 125 | 3.25%-3.50% |
| Barclays | 25 | 50 | 3.75%-4.00% |
| Macquarie | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through June 2025) |
| J.P. Morgan | 25 | – | – |
| Citigroup | 50 | – | – |
| UBS Global Research | 25 | 125 | 3.00%-3.25% (through end of 2025) |
| TD Securities | 25 | 100 | 3.25%-3.50% (through end of 2025) |
| Morgan Stanley | 25 | – | 3.375% (Q4 2025) |
Note: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are independent divisions in UBS Group.
Forecasts from Major Brokerages Before the November Policy Meeting
| Brokerage | 2024 | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Barclays | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Macquarie | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| J.P. Morgan | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 | – | – |
| Citigroup | 25 | 25 | 50 |
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