Bellwether Counties in the U.S. Presidential Election

By Pete Schroeder

With Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris locked in a dead heat in the race for the White House, political forecasters are eyeing several counties across the country for clues on potential outcomes as polls close on Tuesday evening.

Here is a list of pivotal counties compiled by Reuters, based on research from various financial and political analysts.

Arizona

Maricopa County
Home to 4.5 million people, Maricopa County is crucial for both the presidency and the Senate. Biden won it in 2020, breaking a long Republican streak.
– Poll Closing: 9 p.m. ET (0100 GMT)
– Results may take up to 13 days.

Florida

Miami-Dade County
Though Trump leads in Florida, Miami-Dade remains critical as it was more Democrat-friendly previously. Harris needs to maintain support among Hispanic voters.
– Poll Closing: 7 p.m. ET.

Georgia

DeKalb and Gwinnett Counties
These urban counties are bellwethers for Democratic performance in Georgia. Their trends can indicate Harris's standing with suburban voters.
– Poll Closing: 7 p.m. ET.

Michigan

Saginaw County & Wayne County
Saginaw has been reliable for predicting state outcomes. Wayne County, notably Detroit, is another area to watch for Democratic margins.
– Poll Closing: 8 p.m. ET.

Nevada

Clark County
Home to Las Vegas, this county has more than half the state's population and is critical for Trump's strategy.
– Poll Closing: 10 p.m. ET.

North Carolina

Wake and Mecklenburg Counties
These Democratic strongholds are crucial for Harris to win North Carolina, a state that has not favored Democrats since Obama in 2008.
– Poll Closing: 7:30 p.m. ET.

Pennsylvania

Erie County & Lackawanna County
These working-class areas have historically been bellwethers. A strong turnout for Trump could indicate statewide trends.
– Poll Closing: 8 p.m. ET.

Wisconsin

Dane County & Waukesha County
Biden's strong showing in Dane County signals support, while Waukesha's shift towards Democrats may be indicative of broader trends.
– Poll Closing: 9 p.m. ET.