Goldman Sachs Adjusts OPEC+ Oil Production Expectations

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for OPEC+ oil production, now expecting three months of production increases starting from December instead of October, as stated in a note on Friday.

OPEC+ confirmed it would delay a planned oil output increase for October and November after crude prices fell to a nine-month low. The group indicated that it could further pause or reverse the hikes if necessary.

Despite these adjustments, Goldman Sachs maintained its Brent crude price range of $70-85 per barrel and predicted a December 2025 Brent forecast of $74 per barrel.

The investment bank anticipates that a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply in the coming months will be offset by the easing impact of current softness in China’s demand and the faster-than-expected recovery of Libya’s supply.

Goldman Sachs noted, “We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions.”

On Friday, Brent crude futures fell $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel, the lowest level since December 2021. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also dropped $1.48 or 2.14%, settling at $67.67, marking their lowest price since June 2023.