Goldman Sachs Adjusts OPEC+ Oil Production Expectations

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations for OPEC+ oil production, anticipating three months of increases starting from December, postponed from October, as noted on Friday.

OPEC+ had agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November, citing a dip in crude prices to their lowest in nine months, and indicated a possible further pause or reversal of increases if necessary.

Despite these adjustments, Goldman Sachs upheld its Brent crude price range of $70-85 per barrel and forecasted December 2025 Brent at $74 per barrel.

The bank expects that a modest reduction in OPEC+ supply will be offset by a decrease in demand from China and a quicker recovery of Libya’s supply.

Goldman Sachs stated, “We still see the risks to our $70-85 range as skewed to the downside given high spare capacity, and downside risks to demand from weakness in China and potential trade tensions.”

As of Friday, Brent crude futures fell $1.63, or 2.24%, to $71.06 a barrel—the lowest since December 2021. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped $1.48, or 2.14%, to $67.67, marking their lowest since June 2023.