The Hedera (HBAR) Market Just Got a Major Catalyst

Bloomberg Terminal data shows that both Grayscale and Canary have filed for a spot HBAR ETF, with the SEC setting November 11, 2025 as the final deadline. The approval odds sit at a strong 90%. This development places HBAR alongside XRP, Cardano, and Polkadot, all potentially up for approval by year-end, shifting Hedera’s price outlook from speculative to possibly institutional-grade.

HBAR Price Prediction: Why the HBAR ETF Deadline Matters?

ETFs act as a bridge between traditional finance and crypto. A spot HBAR ETF would allow pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors to gain exposure without interfacing with crypto exchanges. Grayscale’s involvement promises significant liquidity if the product goes live. The November deadline establishes a timeline for this narrative to gain traction, and the price is expected to be influenced by positioning and speculative accumulation leading up to approval.

HBAR Price Prediction: Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Setup

The daily chart shows HBAR’s price sliding since late July after its summer rally, currently positioned at 0.217 and barely above the lower Bollinger Band. The momentum is bearish, with red candles indicating a consistent downtrend. The middle band near 0.23 serves as immediate resistance, while the upper band near 0.25 marks the next obstacle.

Support levels are around 0.20 and 0.18; breaching 0.20 could lead to risks towards the mid-0.10s. However, maintaining above 0.21 leaves the possibility for a base-building phase. If ETF hype escalates ahead of November, a powerful move could be triggered once resistance at 0.24 is overcome.

Volatility Compression Signals a Bigger Move Ahead

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed compared to the July rally, indicating volatility compression, typically a precursor to a breakout. Given the news of the HBAR ETF, an upside breakout seems more probable, but timing remains uncertain. Short-term traders should look for a decisive daily close above 0.23 to confirm buyer control.

What Happens If HBAR ETF Approval Comes?

Should the SEC approve the ETF in November, HBAR’s price could rapidly re-rate to new heights. Institutional inflows combined with retail FOMO might propel the token towards its July highs around 0.28 and potentially above 0.30. With supply tied up in staking and governance, any surge in demand could drastically amplify price movements. Conversely, a rejection or delay could plunge Hedera’s price back to the 0.15–0.18 range.

Accumulation Window Before the Catalyst

At this critical juncture, $HBAR presents a medium-term bullish factor with the ETF timeline, even while the chart leans bearish in the short term. Traders should focus on accumulation near 0.20–0.21 for an attractive risk-reward setup ahead of November. A breakout above 0.23 would indicate bullish momentum, while a downturn below 0.20 would stall the bullish scenario.

In summary, Hedera is currently in a quiet accumulation phase, but as November approaches, the HBAR ETF decision could trigger significant price movements.