By Dan Burns

(Reuters) – U.S. presidential elections are all about "the economy, stupid", said Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville in 1992.

For American voters concerned primarily about the economy, especially those nearly half who feel worse off financially than four years ago, their choice for the next president appeared clear: Republican Donald Trump.

Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential contest after Fox News projected his win against Democrat Kamala Harris, following victories in key battleground states including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.

He was leading in the remaining four battleground states, any one of which would secure his Electoral College total above the 270 required for victory.

About 31% of voters identified the economy as their top issue, ranking second behind the 35% who prioritized the state of democracy, according to national exit polling data from Edison Research. Among voters focused on the economy, 79% supported Trump over Harris (20%).

Concerns over high inflation in recent years influenced public sentiment and voter alignment with Trump. Over half of voters reported moderate hardship due to inflation last year, while nearly one in four reported severe hardship. Among those experiencing severe hardship, 73% voted for Trump.

Edison's exit polls revealed 45% of voters felt their family's financial situation was worse today than four years prior, compared to just 20% in 2020. Those voters elected Trump over Harris 80% to 17%.

These results align with surveys showing consumers rating the economy poorly, despite low unemployment, above-trend growth, robust consumer spending, and record-high household wealth.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a record low in summer 2022 when inflation peaked at 9.1% year-over-year, the highest since the early 1980s. Although sentiment has improved as interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve helped reduce inflation to around the 2% target, it remains significantly lower than during Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021.