Concerns in San Francisco’s Mayoral Race

By Judith Langowski

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Concerns about housing and crime are dominating San Francisco’s mayoral race, providing voters a chance to choose a path to revitalize their city.

San Francisco represents the challenges many large U.S. cities face, struggling with uneven economic recovery and rising living costs post-COVID-19 pandemic.

Critics describe the city as trapped in a ‘doom loop’ marked by street homelessness and open drug markets. Downtown recovery is slow, with numerous empty storefronts and low foot traffic.

San Francisco holds the highest office vacancy rate among major U.S. cities at around 32%, as per March 2024 data from JLL.

In response, the liberal city has experienced a political shift, implementing new police surveillance technologies and mandatory drug screenings for public assistance recipients through ballot measures passed this year.

The upcoming mayoral race is expected to reflect the rising popularity of the moderate-centrist faction within the Democratic party.

“Voter priorities are not aligning with traditional progressive issues,” said Jason McDaniel, a political science professor at San Francisco State University.

Starting with early voting on Oct. 7, voters will choose from 13 candidates using ranked-choice voting. Incumbent Mayor London Breed, in office since a 2018 special election, faces four key opponents, all Democrats. Breed has the backing of the San Francisco Democrats.

An August poll by the San Francisco Chronicle indicates Breed leads, followed by moderate Democrats Mark Farrell and Daniel Lurie. Progressive candidates Aaron Peskin and Ahsha Safai trail.

Crime and public safety top voter concerns, surpassing housing affordability and homelessness.

Delayed Election Impact

A postponed election may have favored Breed, as local elections in San Francisco were moved to even-numbered years to potentially boost turnout.

Now, Breed has had an extra 12 months to enhance public perception. “People are starting to feel better about the city,” McDaniel noted.

Crime rates have dropped 32% year-over-year, partly due to enhanced police resources and improved surveillance, according to Breed.

Farrell argues much more needs to be accomplished, vowing to appoint a new police chief in his first 100 days and declare a “fentanyl state of emergency” for more state and federal aid.

Critics also target Breed for the sluggish pace of new housing approvals, with the city lagging behind state housing mandates, having permitted only about 500 of the 82,000 new units required by 2031.

Breed seeks to address these issues by focusing on underutilized areas for new constructions while preserving the city’s character, known for its Victorian homes.

Despite having the highest median household income among major U.S. cities, homelessness persists, with around 8,000 individuals reportedly unhoused, an estimated undercount.

Following a June Supreme Court ruling that deemed sweep bans constitutional, Breed’s administration has conducted homeless encampment sweeps as part of a broader solution, which includes increasing shelter capacity and relocating homeless individuals.

Progressive candidate Peskin criticizes the sweeps as relocating problems rather than resolving them.

Lurie, a nonprofit founder, claims Breed’s measures are insufficient to prevent homelessness, asserting that allowing people to live on the streets is inhumane. Lurie has funded over $6 million of his campaign from personal wealth, backed by tech investors.

Homelessness, he asserts, “is against the law, and it’s not compassionate or humane to allow people to stay on our streets.”