By Rahul Trivedi and Pranoy Krishna

BENGALURU (Reuters)

India's retail inflation likely fell to 5.53% in November, following a breach of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 6% tolerance band, due to a moderation in soaring vegetable prices. This conclusion stems from a Reuters poll of economists.

The RBI maintained steady interest rates last week amid price pressures, despite an unexpected slowdown in economic growth last quarter.

Inflation had risen to 6.21% in October, a 14-month high, largely driven by significant vegetable price increases and additional import duties on edible oils imposed in September.

However, the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) is predicted to have decreased to 5.53% in November. This figure is based on a median estimate from a Dec. 4-9 Reuters survey of 56 economists. Expectations for November's inflation data, set to be released on Dec. 12 at 1030 GMT, ranged between 5.00% and 6.10%. Only two economists anticipated inflation would remain at or above the RBI's 2% to 6% tolerance band.

A decline in inflation would be favorable for households in India, where food constitutes a significant portion of expenses.

Rahul Bajoria, head of India and ASEAN economic research at BofA Securities, noted that vegetable prices are beginning to show signs of moderation, and that edible oil prices are stabilizing post-duty hikes. He indicated that the current crop harvest could also dampen prices in the medium term.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, is estimated to remain steady at 3.70% in November, according to a smaller sample of 29 economists surveyed.

Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ, stated that India's high headline inflation is primarily linked to vegetable prices; without them, inflation would fall below 4%. He added that various factors influencing food inflation are easing, suggesting a significant decline in food inflation in the forthcoming months.

The Indian statistics agency does not publish core inflation data. Last week, the RBI revised its growth forecast for the fiscal year to 6.6% from 7.2%, while raising its inflation estimates to 4.8% from 4.5%, reflecting concerns primarily linked to food inflation. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation is anticipated to have decreased to 2.20% in November from 2.36% in October, per the survey.