Italy's Economic Growth Forecast

MILAN (Reuters) – Italy's economic growth this year and next is expected to fall short of government targets of 1% and 1.2%, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the main business lobby, Confindustria.

The eurozone's third-largest economy is forecasted to expand by 0.7% in 2024, consistent with last year's rate. This estimate remains unchanged from the IMF's previous report in July.

For next year, the growth is projected at 0.8%, slightly down from the earlier estimate of 0.9%.

Confindustria supports similar forecasts, estimating growth at 0.8% for this year and 0.9% for 2025. Both organizations imply that the expansionary measures proposed in Rome's recently presented 2025 budget may not effectively stimulate the economy.

The government, led by Giorgia Meloni, had suggested that tax cuts and increased spending in the budget could raise next year's growth to 1.2%, compared to a 0.9% forecast under unchanged policies.

Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti acknowledged earlier this month that the goal for this year's growth might be unattainable after downward revisions were made by ISTAT, the national statistics office.

According to ISTAT, the 'acquired growth' by the end of the second quarter is 0.4%, revised down from the previously estimated 0.6%.

The IMF and Confindustria join recent forecasts from the Bank of Italy and the parliamentary budget watchdog UPB, all of which predict more conservative growth figures than the government.