Italy’s Debt Concerns

By Giuseppe Fonte

ROME (Reuters) – European Union authorities are contemplating an accounting revision that could elevate Italy’s already high public debt, according to two sources familiar with the situation. The Italian government is currently in discussions regarding this matter.

The proposed change would reclassify the motorway operator Autostrade per l’Italia as a public entity, which would add up to €11.5 billion ($12.47 billion) in financial liabilities to the national debt. The sources wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of these discussions.

If the European Commission’s statistics branch, Eurostat, proceeds with the change, Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio could rise by as much as half a percentage point, complicating its commitments to reduce debt levels to Brussels.

Italy’s debt is already among the highest in the Eurozone, following Greece, reaching 135.3% of GDP in 2024 from 134.6% the previous year.

The public attention surrounding Autostrade surged after the 2018 Genoa bridge collapse. The company was sold in May 2022 for €9.3 billion to a consortium of investors, including state lender Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, U.S. fund Blackstone, and Australia’s fund Macquarie, following a legal battle related to the disaster that resulted in 43 deaths.

While Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, which has a gross debt of €356 billion, operates profit-oriented, Eurostat monitors its activities and could potentially reclassify it based on the changes to Autostrade’s status. This scenario would exacerbate Italy’s financial situation.

Eurostat commented that it regularly engages with member states about statistical classifications, reaffirming Autostrade’s current status as outside the general government sector.

Government Mandate Inquiry

In November 2022, Eurostat officials visited Italy to assess whether Cassa Depositi e Prestiti had a governmental mandate for acquiring the motorway operator, as detailed in their public findings at the time. The state lender maintains that the acquisition was a strategic investment and autonomous from government influence.

Further investigations occurred in November 2024, with findings expected to be released only before August; however, reports suggest that Italy has struggled to prove that the government did not influence Cassa Depositi e Prestiti’s investment decisions concerning Autostrade.

In recent years, Eurostat has mandated that several state-controlled firms, including loan manager AMCO, be categorized within the general government sector.

Italy anticipates that its debt will continue to increase, approaching 138% of GDP by 2026, largely attributed to the residual costs of a state-funded home renovation initiative, despite its phase-out.

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