Italian Economic Forecasts

MILAN (Reuters) – The Italian economy is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025, according to the country's central bank.

This confirms the July estimates for 2024 and slightly raises the forecast for 2025. However, these figures remain below the Italian government’s predictions of 1.0% growth in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025.

Previously, the central bank projected 0.8% growth for both years. The forecasts are not adjusted for the number of working days annually, following methodologies used by the government, EU, and other international entities.

When accounting for working days, the Bank of Italy revised its growth estimate to 0.6% for this year and 1.0% for next year.

Recently, ISTAT decreased Italy's 2023 growth rate from 0.9% to 0.7%. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti indicated that achieving the government’s growth target of 1% for this year now appears challenging. This sentiment was echoed by both the Bank of Italy and Rome's parliamentary budget watchdog.

The central bank anticipates an average inflation rate of 1.1% for Rome this year, unchanged from the previous July estimate, with inflation projected to rise to 1.6% in 2025, slightly above the earlier estimate of 1.5%. These estimates are based on data available until October 4, including ISTAT's recent revisions.