Japan's Industrial Output Expected to Rebound in September

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan's industrial output likely rebounded in September, led by a recovery in auto production, though sustained growth may be uncertain due to lacklustre global demand, according to a Reuters poll released on Friday.

Industrial output was forecast to rise 1.0% in September from the previous month, the poll of 17 analysts found. It had dropped 3.3% in August, affected by typhoon-led disruptions in auto production and weak U.S. sales.

> “Although the U.S. economy is unexpectedly resilient, the global economy as a whole is showing lower growth,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
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> “Auto exports, Japan's main export, are sluggish … Production in September is expected to grow only slightly.”

Factory output last month was likely bolstered by gains in the production of electronic parts and devices due to increased demand for semiconductors, the poll indicated.

Next week, data will include retail sales, expected to show a 2.3% gain in September compared to the previous year after a revised 3.1% increase in August.

Solid demand from inbound tourism continues to boost the nation's retail sales, analysts expect.

The trade ministry will announce factory output and retail sales at 8:50 a.m. on Oct. 31 (2350 GMT Oct. 30).

Japan's jobless rate was likely at 2.5% in September, unchanged from August, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio was expected to be steady at 1.23, according to the poll. The jobs data will be published at 8:30 a.m. on Oct. 29.

The poll also indicated that the Bank of Japan will likely maintain short-term rates steady at 0.25% during its two-day policy meeting ending on Oct. 31. The BOJ's policy decision will follow Sunday’s general election, where new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces a critical test of his agenda to raise wages and revitalize the country's weak regional economies.