Japan's Consumer Inflation and Export Growth

Tokyo (Reuters) – Japan's core consumer inflation rate likely eased in September due to decreased energy costs from government subsidies, while export growth significantly slowed, according to a Reuters poll released on Friday.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was projected to have risen 2.3% in September compared to the previous year, a decrease from 2.8% in August, based on a survey of 18 economists.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, indicated, "The pace of increase in consumer inflation likely eased due to lower prices of electricity and city gas, while prices of some foods, such as rice, increased."

The same poll revealed that exports were expected to have grown by 0.5% in September from the previous year, a significant decline from a revised 5.5% in August. Imports were anticipated to have risen 3.2%, resulting in a deficit of 237.6 billion yen ($1.60 billion) for September, compared to a 2.3% increase in August.

Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, noted, "Export growth is expected to be modest as global manufacturing activity is weak."

The internal affairs ministry will release CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on Oct. 18 (2330 GMT, Oct. 17), and the finance ministry will announce trade data at 8:50 a.m. on Oct. 17 (2350 GMT, Oct. 16).

Machinery orders, an important indicator of capital spending, likely fell 0.1% month-on-month in August, matching July's decline rate, according to the poll.

Tsunoda commented, "Although firms' investment appetite remains positive, signs of postponed capital spending are emerging due to factors such as the stagnation of China's economy."

Data for machinery orders will be released at 8:50 a.m. on Oct. 16 (2350 GMT, Oct. 15).

($1 = 148.6300 yen)