Prediction Platforms Gain Popularity on Election Day

Two prediction platforms reached top spots on the Apple App Store on Nov. 5, coinciding with the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Kalshi and Polymarket Rankings

Kalshi now ranks first in Apple's finance app category and third overall among free apps, according to the app analysis platform SensorTower. Meanwhile, Polymarket holds the fourth-highest ranking app in the finance category.

This marks the highest placement for both apps to date, likely driven by increased interest in betting on election outcomes. Prediction markets allow users to wager on the likelihood of future events. In theory, bettors are incentivized to present their unbiased views when money is involved, offering a different perspective on the election compared to traditional polls.

Betting on Election Outcomes

Both platforms provide users with the ability to place bets on various election-related markets, including outcomes of swing state races and the presidential winner. However, only Kalshi is accessible to U.S. users. Kalshi’s market on whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will win has grown to $247 million as of Nov. 5.

Polymarket has $3.26 billion in total betting volume for the 2024 U.S. presidential winner, making it the largest market on the application. Since its launch in 2020, the Ethereum-based platform has accumulated $5.15 billion in cumulative trading volume, according to The Block's Data Dashboard.

Regulatory Landscape

A federal court allowed Kalshi to list election betting contracts in early October, following the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's efforts to strictly regulate these "event contracts." Kalshi enables users to deposit the stablecoin USDC through the digital payment infrastructure firm Zero Hash.