La Niña Weather Conditions Forecast

(Reuters) – A U.S. government forecaster reported a 71% chance of La Niña weather conditions developing between September and November.

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects these conditions to persist through the January-March period next year, according to their monthly forecast.

Importance

La Niña is a climate pattern characterized by colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It is associated with:

• Increased frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean
• Associated floods and droughts
• Expected less rain and worsening drought conditions affecting global agriculture

Context

The cycle of El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases typically lasts two to seven years. Earlier this week, Japan's weather bureau predicted a 60% chance of La Niña occurring until winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

In positive news, a Reuters poll indicated Brazilian soybean farmers could produce 14% more in the 2024/2025 season compared to the previous one, as expectations of increased rain rise in the last quarter of the year.

Key Quotes

> “The agricultural and livestock sectors are clearly most at risk from the effects of La Niña, with many of these areas key for crops like soybeans and corn,” – David Oxley, head of climate economics at Capital Economics.

> “The typical La Niña may not materialize if the signal is weak. However, the main area to watch for dryness concerns and crop production reductions is the crop lands of Argentina, Uruguay, and southeast Brazil during their summer,” – Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather.