Macron Appoints Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister for 2024

By Dominique Vidalon and Tassilo Hummel
PARIS (Reuters) – French President Emmanuel Macron named key ally Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister of 2024 on Friday. However, the challenge ahead for the veteran centrist became immediately clear when the Socialist Party refused to join his coalition government.

Bayrou, 73, provided a sober outlook on the prospects of managing a hung parliament that ousted his predecessor, Michel Barnier, just last week.

> "It is a long road, everyone knows that," he told reporters. "I am not the first to take a long road."

France's ongoing political malaise has raised questions about whether Macron will finish his second presidential term until 2027. This situation has also driven up French borrowing costs and created a power vacuum in Europe, especially as Donald Trump enters the White House and Germany prepares for new elections after its governing coalition's collapse.

Bayrou, founder of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party, which has been part of Macron's ruling alliance since 2017, has run for president three times and draws on his background as the longtime mayor of Pau.

His immediate goal will be to pass a special law to roll over the 2024 budget, while a contentious battle over the 2025 budget legislation looms early next year. The pushback in parliament regarding the 2025 bill led to Barnier's downfall, and left-wing leaders have signaled they might try to displace Bayrou if he uses constitutional powers to push the budget without parliamentary approval.

Bayrou's close ties to the unpopular Macron may also present vulnerabilities. The Socialist Party, which Macron attempted to court during his prime ministerial search, accused him of favoring a "risky" Macronista over their demands for a leftist leader.

> "We will thus not enter the government and remain in the opposition," stated Boris Vallaud, leader of the Socialists' parliamentary bloc.

VIEW FROM THE LEFT

Reactions from the left to Bayrou's appointment will concern Macron, as the prime minister may find himself living day-to-day at the mercy of opposition forces. Macron hopes that Bayrou can weather no-confidence votes at least until July, when a new parliamentary election is possible.

Far-left leaders of the France Unbowed party indicated they would pursue immediate actions to remove Bayrou, while others from left-wing parties adopted a more cautious stance. Greens leader Marine Tondelier expressed support for a no-confidence motion if Bayrou neglects their tax and pension concerns.

Communist leader Fabien Roussel indicated that his party would evaluate Bayrou's actions before making a decision. Meanwhile, Jordan Bardella, president of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, noted they would not push for an immediate no-confidence motion but reminded Bayrou to heed the opposition's budgetary demands.

REAL TEST OVER 2025 BUDGET LOOMS

Barnier's budget bill, which sought to cut 60 billion euros ($63 billion) to address France's 6% deficit, faced criticism from both the far-right and left. The government's inability to break the deadlock has resulted in rising borrowing costs.

XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks suggested that Bayrou's appointment would not significantly impact French bonds but noted the CAC 40 French stock index is underperforming compared to German stocks.

> "With France still mired in political turmoil, narrowing this gap is an uphill struggle, even with a new PM," she stated.

Macron appointed Bayrou as justice minister in 2017, but he resigned shortly after due to an investigation concerning his party's alleged fraudulent employment of parliamentary assistants. Bayrou was acquitted of fraud charges earlier this year.