The Breakdown: Electric Fish and Human Cognition

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> “It could explain why we can go out for seafood, but seafood can’t go out for us.”
> — Malcolm MacIver on our evolved ability to make plans

Neuroscientist Malcolm MacIver’s study of electric fish illuminates how all fish and humans think.

The electrical currents used by these distant cousins allow MacIver to measure how far into the future fish can plan.

As it turns out, not very far. Electric fish can’t see more than a few centimeters in their murky waters, leading their brains to evolve to think only a few milliseconds ahead. This gives them enough time to react instinctually to nearby prey, predators, or obstacles but doesn’t accommodate any form of extended planning.

In a survival context, deliberation is a luxury; therefore, fish have developed a reflexive brain optimized for immediate response. Evolution hasn’t prioritized complex cognitive functions because the aquatic environment didn’t reward such abilities.

However, fish that moved onto land evolved improved eyesight, allowing them to perceive the Moon, the Sun, and beyond, along with enhanced cognitive functions.

MacIver posits that the expanded vision on land provided a selective advantage for planning and abstract thinking, emphasizing that thinking ahead is more useful on land than in water. Consequently, land-dwelling fish evolved the capacity to forecast the future better than their aquatic relatives.

MacIver states, “We speculated that moving onto land poured jet fuel on the evolution of the brain as it may have advantaged the hardest cognitive operation there is: envisioning the future.”

Of course, no land-based species is better at anticipating the future than humans. Yet, even after millions of years on land, our brains retain an aquatic aspect; primitive limbic and brainstem pathways dictate reflexive responses.

This is often detrimental: we may overreact, neglect reflective thinking, and fail to plan for future needs like retirement. On the flip side, these ancient brain regions protect us from immediate dangers.

In this murky time, we may find that our reflexive responses are more advantageous when we cannot see far into the future.

Fish-brained Investors

Jeff Bezos is known for his long-term vision but has also warned against it. During the dotcom boom, he said, “If you are planning for more than twenty minutes ahead in this kind of environment, you are wasting your time.”

The swift evolution of the internet at that time made long-term assumptions risky, and today’s landscape of AI poses even more uncertainty.

Questions arise: Will stocks or companies still exist in a few years? Will people still be necessary in the workforce?

AI’s rapid advance complicates the ability to foresee future successes or failures. For example, while Microsoft may benefit from users leveraging its AI co-pilot, it could also suffer if AI disrupts white-collar jobs altogether.

Investment outcomes have never seemed so binary. Ric Edelman suggests owning fewer equities (representing past businesses) and more crypto (forward-thinking technology). However, this perspective relies on an evidently clear vision of the future.

He advocates for Bitcoin, known for its resistance to change, and Ethereum, which follows strategic five-year plans. In contrast, Solana, which iterates quickly like a fish, is absent from his recommendations.

The advantage of speed and low costs is currently paramount for crypto’s active users, though opinions may shift, leading to a potential return to slower-moving Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems.

Ultimately, there may be a middle ground, as exemplified by Bezos’ focus on observable, persistent consumer desires: lower prices and faster delivery.