Rising Odds for a Spot Solana ETF Approval

The odds of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s acceptance of a spot Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) are increasing.

According to Polymarket, the odds of a SOL ETF approval have surged to 71%, up from this week’s low of 58% and last month’s 50%.

This rising potential is attributed to the impending presidency of President-elect Donald Trump and his nomination of Paul Atkins as SEC chair. Trump is also establishing his crypto council, appointing Bo Hines as executive director and David Sacks, a former PayPal executive, as “crypto czar.”

Approval of a spot Solana (SOL) ETF would come several months after the SEC rejected applications from companies like 21Shares, Canary Capital, and VanEck, with the agency claiming that Solana was an unregistered security.

The growing odds of SOL ETF approval suggest that investors expect Atkins to differ from former chairs Gary Gensler and Jay Clayton.

In contrast, VolatilityShares has submitted a filing for futures-based Solana ETFs, offering users 1x, 2x, and -1x exposure to the coin. According to Eric Balchunas, a Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, this application is surprising given that Solana futures do not yet exist.

> “This is wild. Solana futures ETF filing before Solana futures even exist! And let’s do a 2x while we’re at it. Hardcore.. and probably a good sign Solana futures are on the way which arguably bodes well for spot odds.” – Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas)

VolatilityShares has several leveraged ETFs, with the 2x Bitcoin ETF being its largest, boasting over $3.2 billion in assets. The 2x Ethereum (ETH) ETF has also amassed over $830 million in assets under management.

Solana has gained immense popularity, with its token having a market cap exceeding $90 billion, making it the sixth-largest cryptocurrency. It ranks as the second-biggest blockchain chain, possessing over $8.25 billion in assets. Its DEX protocols like Raydium and Orca lead in volume, having processed over $636 billion cumulatively and $18.9 billion in the last week.

Thus, rising odds indicate that spot Solana ETFs could attract significant investor capital, as many have begun to embrace Ethereum ETFs, with Ether ETFs drawing over $2.68 billion in inflows.

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